Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Developing a 21st Century Spacecraft


A mission to Mars is currently virtually impossible because there isn't an existing spacecraft capable of getting humans there. Over the last few decades, NASA has successfully landed rovers and probes to the surface of Mars, but sending humans to another planet is an entirely different challenge. Unlike robots, humans have biological needs. In order to stay healthy for a months long trip in space, they need enough air to breath, water to drink, food to eat, and room to freely move around in. In addition, astronauts need protection from the harsh environment of space, which is constantly bombarded by radiation and temperatures that can kill astronauts almost instantly. All these requirements mean that the first Mars spaceship will have to be larger and heavier than any spacecraft built before. A large spacecraft requires a huge rocket to get it to Earth orbit and beyond. Huge rockets cost huge amounts of money and years to build, making a deep manned space mission difficult to accomplish in any short period of time. The way the first Mars missions are designed is incredibly important because it will ultimately determine the likelihood of humanity establishing a permanent foothold on Mars, because the sustainability of the program will ultimately influence the way spacecraft are built in the future. The Apollo missions were huge accomplishments, but were ultimately unsustainable due to their cost, and as a result, astronauts haven't visited the moon in over 40 years. A Mars mission should be about designing a dependable deep space craft that will revolutionize space travel technology and begin an new era of manned space exploration.

After the Apollo program reached the Moon within a decade of it's inception, it seemed inevitable that humans would be exploring the surface of Mars before the end of the 20th century. As the Cold War space rivalry between the US and the Soviet union dissipated, it became clear that there was not enough political pressure to mount a manned Mars mission. NASA's funding shrank to a small fraction of the size that it was during the Apollo era and the maintenance and construction of the International Space Station (ISS) became the primary function of NASA's manned space program. A human Mars mission was no longer an inevitability, only a long-term goal. The Space Shuttle long outlasted its intended 15 year lifetime, flying 135 missions over forty years, allowing astronauts to visit the ISS regularly (Duggins 32). The Space Shuttle was never designed to leave the orbit of Earth because it was not designed to undertake a journey to Mars, let alone land and return astronauts from its surface. In 2011, the retirement of the Space Shuttle has finally freed up the NASA budget to focus on Mars. With the loss of the shuttle, the Unites States lost it's ability to send astronauts to the ISS, and now depends on Russia to use the Soyuz rocket for manned missions. This is an awkward arrangement because it gives Russia control over the cost and maintenance of the manned space program and if there to be an international disagreement with the Russians they would have the power to suspend flights to the ISS. In order to restore manned spaceflight to the ISS, NASA turned to the private sector, offering contracts to companies if they could design and launch their own human-rated spacecraft. As of 2015, SpaceX and Boeing are the two companies who have won these contracts by designing human-rated capsules. Each capsule is capable of transporting 7 astronauts to the ISS. By allocating the development of these spacecraft to private companies, NASA has been able to dedicate the majority of Mars funds towards the SLS. In order to get to Mars, with current technology, you need a huge rocket.
“What NASA will do or has done historically for, say, a new vehicle design is they’ll come up with the overall design and then they will have various government contractors build the elements of that design, usually Boeing or Lockheed Martin or that kind of thing. And then those government contractors will subcontract to smaller companies, and those smaller companies will subcontract to still smaller companies. And so by the time you actually get to somebody who’s doing something useful, like actually cutting metal, you have profit and overhead to the fourth or fifth power. And it’s really, really expensive, and it’s kind of inefficient.” - Elon Musk

NASA's proposed SLS rocket expected to launch in 2018 (Source: Jason Rhian)

Many who follow space exploration, view the NASA's planned launch date of the mid to late 2030's for a manned Mars mission as too little, too late. By designing SLS to be a "flexible" program, the government has essentially made it easy for the SLS program to be cancelled altogether or repurposed, and never used for a Mars mission. While the SLS program has support from congress, it is likely that NASA could be cut even further in an effort to reduce government spending. It has happened twice before, NASA first planned a manned mars mission in the 80's called the Ares program, but this was cut. In the 2000's the Constellation program was planned. It would be a massive deep-space exploration program that would start a Moon base and eventually take men to Mars. This program was also cut due to a lack of funding and concerns over the long-term viability of the program. Due to the unreliable nature of funding for NASA's programs, some argue that NASA should abandon SLS before it is too late and hand over the development of a heavy-lift launcher to private company's like United Launch Alliance and SpaceX. (Wilson)

References:
  • The Rise and Fall of the Space Shuttle, Book Review: Final Countdown: NASA and the End of the Space Shuttle Program by Pat Duggins, American Scientist, 2008, Vol. 96, No. 5
  • "NASA commits to $7 billion mega rocket, 2018 debut"CBS News. August 27, 2014
  • Wilson, Peter. "Kill the Space Launch System to Save Human Spaceflight." RAND.org. Web. 1 Dec. 2015.

3 comments:

  1. Hello Jeremy,

    awesome picture you got there! I was wondering if any other countries are trying to reach Mars like we are? I know these space adventures can be very costly, but how much do you think it would take to have a successful mission? I know Elon Musk and other space companies are eager to make this mission happen. 2030 seems like its far away and I'm wondering if that date was estimated due to the need to get to Mars being not so crucial. I also wonder if DFJ and other venture firms have been raising capital for this mission?

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  2. The SLS is definitely an impressive rocket! As far a I know, Russia, the European Space Agency (ESA), India, and China have all announced "plans" to go to Mars but no earlier than the 2030's. I think the reason the date is so far off is because Nasa's budget is relatively small and their is no real political or economic incentive for them to rush a Mars mission. Nasa wants to send human missions to asteroids in the 2020's first before actually attempting to reach Mars for a couple of reasons. 1) It helps them test the capabilities of their hardware and 2) Because operating a long term space program benefits politicians who have constituents who work for the sub-contractors that Elon was talking about in the quote I posted. In my opinion, this is the weakness of Nasa when it comes to human missions. I'll talk about how Elon Musk is trying to get around this problem by making space tourism/colonization profitable in a future blog post. Thanks for the comment!

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  3. Space exploration to Mars certainly seems plausible. The technology back then when we first traveled to the Moon pales in comparison to what we have now and what is to come. No one at that time could've imagined we would be able to land a man on the Moon, yet we still did it. It really is a shame that the governments can't work together for a common cause, that is, traveling to Mars, rather than compete against each other.

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